Iran Conflict Updates

Western media reports indicate U.S. and Iranian negotiators may have reached a tentative 60-day memorandum of understanding, but the agreement remains uncertain and unfinalized, as key decision-makers—President Donald Trump and Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei—have not yet approved it and details remain unclear. Even if negotiators have explored concessions, there is significant doubt that senior Iranian leadership, particularly Khamenei and IRGC leadership, are willing to accept them, especially given Khamenei’s continued refusal to relinquish Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the IRGC is actively attempting to enforce its claim over the strait through coercive measures, while U.S. military strikes aim to prevent Iran from establishing that control in practice. In parallel, the United States is taking steps to disrupt Iran’s efforts to institutionalize a “protection racket” in the strait, including sanctioning the Persian Gulf Strait Authority and warning that entities cooperating with it could face penalties.

Iranian officials continue to frame control of the Strait of Hormuz as a central pillar of their deterrence strategy against the United States and Israel, insisting the waterway will only be “reopened” to civilian shipping under Iranian-controlled arrangements that would require approval and undermine the principle of freedom of navigation. At the same time, ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran remain stalled, with significant disagreements across key issues and Iran proposing a sequence of concessions that would require the United States to relinquish leverage before addressing the nuclear program. Iranian rhetoric and media narratives suggest the regime believes it has emerged from the conflict in a position of strength and is seeking to convert that perceived military success into lasting political and strategic gains, as reflected in its maximalist demands. Meanwhile, satellite imagery and other reporting indicate that Iran is using the ceasefire period to actively rebuild its military capabilities, including efforts to reconstitute missile infrastructure, reinforcing concerns that Tehran is preparing for potential future confrontation even as negotiations continue.

The United States and Iran remain far apart in negotiations, with Iranian officials reaffirming their refusal to discuss their nuclear program and insisting on maintaining their right to enrich uranium, while simultaneously demanding significant upfront economic relief through the rapid release of frozen assets—concessions that could accelerate Iran’s military reconstitution. At the same time, Iran continues to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, refusing to reopen it and employing force, including attempted mine deployments, to enforce its restrictive transit system. These actions underscore a broader hardline posture reinforced by Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s public reaffirmation of core regime objectives, including opposition to the United States and Israel, expelling U.S. forces from the region, and advancing a long-term ideological vision, signaling limited willingness to compromise and a continued readiness for confrontation.

The United States and Iran remain far apart on key elements of a potential agreement, particularly Iran’s refusal to commit publicly to halting uranium enrichment or relinquishing its highly enriched uranium stockpiles, while President Donald Trump has emphasized that any deal must be substantially stronger than the JCPOA. At the same time, Iran continues to assert that the Strait of Hormuz constitutes territorial waters jointly controlled by Iran and Oman, advancing efforts to legitimize transit tolls as “protection fees” despite their inconsistency with international law and its exclusion of the UAE from its definition of coastal states. Regionally, Trump has also urged several Middle Eastern leaders to expand diplomatic normalization through the Abraham Accords. Meanwhile, Hezbollah appears to be evolving its operational tactics, developing rudimentary “swarm” attacks using multiple first-person view drones deployed in rapid succession, a method that, while still basic, signals ongoing adaptation in its asymmetric warfare capabilities.

Conflicting reporting from U.S., Iranian, and regional sources indicates that a potential U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding remains unresolved, with key issues—including sanctions relief, frozen assets, the naval blockade, Lebanon, and control of the Strait of Hormuz—still under dispute and largely frontloaded ahead of any nuclear discussions. Iranian officials and IRGC-affiliated outlets are framing the prospective agreement as contingent on U.S. concessions while emphasizing continued Iranian leverage, rejecting efforts by mediators to defer or sequence core demands. This posture reflects Tehran’s apparent confidence that it is negotiating from a position of strength and its intent to reshape regional dynamics in its favor, especially as it continues to avoid committing to meaningful nuclear concessions and seeks to delay those negotiations until after securing economic and military relief. The talks are further complicated by disagreement over the broader regional conflict, with Iran insisting any agreement must end fighting across all fronts, including Lebanon, while the United States and Israel support continued operations against Hezbollah, which itself has vowed to keep fighting until Israeli forces fully withdraw from southern Lebanon.

Iran’s latest counterproposal reflects a negotiating posture that prioritizes securing its core demands upfront—namely ending the war, removing U.S. military pressure (potentially including a broader withdrawal from the region), obtaining financial relief, and securing recognition of its “right” to manage the Strait of Hormuz—while deliberately deferring substantive discussion of its nuclear program. This approach reinforces the assessment that Tehran believes it is negotiating from a position of strength and seeks to extract concessions before addressing key U.S. concerns. Iran has also made continued control over the strait and an end to the U.S. naval blockade central conditions for further talks, underscoring the waterway as a primary sticking point. In response, President Donald Trump indicated he would decide by May 24 whether to resume strikes, emphasizing that any acceptable agreement must directly address Iran’s uranium enrichment activities and its highly enriched uranium stockpile.

U.S.-Iran negotiations have reportedly seen limited progress, but remain stalled over two core issues: Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile and its efforts to control the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, Iran is conducting an information campaign to legitimize its coercive control over the strait, portraying its “security” requirements for vessel transit as a protective service rather than a threat, despite being the primary source of danger to shipping in the region. This strategy aims to normalize compliance with Iranian rules, but such recognition would effectively grant Tehran de facto control over a critical global maritime chokepoint—an outcome that would undermine U.S. and allied interests and complicate any durable resolution to the conflict.

Iran has yet to respond to the latest U.S. proposal as mediators continue efforts to bridge significant gaps, with both sides identifying Iran’s nuclear program and control over the Strait of Hormuz as the primary sticking points. Iranian officials appear internally divided over potential nuclear concessions—particularly whether to transfer their highly enriched uranium stockpile abroad—while showing greater unity in demanding formal recognition of their control over the strait, a position that suggests confidence in their wartime posture. Concurrently, Iran is working to normalize a coercive transit system in the Strait of Hormuz that requires vessels to coordinate with or pay Iran to avoid attacks, reinforcing its broader strategy of asserting authority over the waterway. During the ceasefire, Iran is also steadily rebuilding its drone and missile capabilities, with drones posing a more resilient threat due to their simpler production requirements, and reportedly receiving external support from China and Russia, highlighting ongoing concerns about the rapid reconstitution of its military capacity even as diplomatic negotiations remain stalled.

Iran is using the ceasefire period to advance a strategy of normalizing its control over the Strait of Hormuz by coercing oil-importing countries into bilateral transit agreements and imposing “security” fees on others, effectively creating a protection-racket system that conditions safe passage on compliance. If successful, this approach could restore vessel traffic to near pre-war levels, thereby masking economic disruption and weakening the case for international intervention, though its ultimate success remains uncertain. Meanwhile, tensions persist as the United States seizes Iranian-linked oil tankers to enforce sanctions, and the IRGC threatens to expand the conflict beyond the region if strikes resume—leveraging capabilities such as terrorism, disruption of other shipping chokepoints, and long-range missile attacks. Regional dynamics are also evolving, with Pakistan seeking to balance its interests through mediation efforts and defense commitments, while Hezbollah’s sustained defense against Israeli operations in southern Lebanon marks the first prolonged engagement since the ceasefire, underscoring the fragility of the broader conflict environment.

The United States continues to exert economic pressure on Iran through sanctions and a naval blockade, but economic strain alone is unlikely to compel Iranian leaders to soften their negotiating stance, as Tehran historically prioritizes regime stability over the population’s economic well-being. At the same time, discussions among NATO countries about potentially escorting commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz reflect growing international concern over disruptions to maritime trade, though lack of consensus has so far prevented action. Militarily, Iran has demonstrated adaptive behavior by reportedly analyzing U.S. aircraft flight patterns during the conflict to improve its targeting capabilities, while U.S. officials are aware of and monitoring these risks, particularly as both sides prepare for the possibility of renewed hostilities.

Iran’s latest counterproposal appears to fall short of U.S. requirements, as it does not include commitments to suspend uranium enrichment or relinquish its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, remaining the central point of contention in negotiations. Amid this stalemate, President Donald Trump announced on May 18 that he canceled a planned U.S. military strike at the request of Gulf leaders to allow more time for diplomacy, while simultaneously directing U.S. forces to remain prepared for a rapid, large-scale operation if talks fail. In parallel, Iran is continuing efforts to formalize and institutionalize its claimed control over the Strait of Hormuz—despite conflicting with international maritime law—while IRGC-affiliated outlets sustain threats against commercial and digital activities tied to the waterway, reinforcing broader attempts to normalize Iranian authority and leverage over global shipping.

The United States and Iran remain at odds in negotiations, with both sides maintaining fundamentally incompatible positions, as reflected in reports that Washington has outlined five key conditions in response to Iran’s latest proposal. Meanwhile, likely Iranian or Iranian-backed forces conducted a drone attack on the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in the UAE on May 17, though radiation levels remained normal and the drones’ western approach suggests an effort to obscure attribution and complicate defenses. In parallel, IRGC-affiliated media has sought to exploit the incident by blaming Saudi Arabia, likely as part of a broader effort to sow discord between the UAE and other Gulf states.

Iran is advancing efforts to normalize and entrench its control over the Strait of Hormuz by introducing a toll system framed as “maritime insurance,” pairing financial incentives with coercive tactics to influence vessel behavior while avoiding the optics of direct fees. At the same time, Tehran is seeking to mitigate the impact of the U.S. naval blockade by expanding alternative overland and rail trade routes through China, Pakistan, and Iraq, though these routes are unlikely to match the scale or efficiency of maritime transit through the Gulf. Separately, Israel and Lebanon have agreed to extend their ceasefire and continue dialogue, but significant disagreements remain over key issues, particularly Hezbollah’s disarmament and the scope and timeline of Israel’s military presence in southern Lebanon.

Senior Iranian officials continue to demand guarantees against future U.S.-Israeli military action as a precondition for negotiations, with Tehran likely viewing recognized control over the Strait of Hormuz as a critical component of such guarantees, given the leverage it provides over global shipping and energy flows. At the same time, the People’s Republic of China has taken an ambiguous position—supporting the need to keep the strait open and opposing tolls or militarization, yet stopping short of clearly rejecting Iran’s broader sovereignty claims. Iran appears to be adjusting its approach by deprioritizing more controversial measures like toll collection to encourage cooperation from countries such as China and gain implicit recognition of its authority, even as it works to mitigate the economic strain caused by the U.S. naval blockade. Regionally, Gulf states are taking steps to reduce their vulnerability, with the UAE accelerating efforts to expand alternative export routes and Saudi Arabia reportedly exploring a potential non-aggression pact with Iran, though its viability remains uncertain. Meanwhile, tensions persist as the UAE adopts a more assertive posture amid closer ties with the United States and Israel, a temporary Israel-Lebanon ceasefire has been extended, and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias continue to create instability—highlighted by U.S. charges against a senior Kataib Hezbollah commander accused of coordinating international attacks targeting U.S. and allied interests.

Iran appears to be prioritizing the legitimization of its claimed authority over the Strait of Hormuz rather than immediately enforcing toll collection, likely aiming to encourage implicit international recognition of its control while avoiding backlash tied to sanctions or payment requirements. By promoting transit protocols that selectively restrict access based on countries’ behavior, Iran is attempting to position itself as a reasonable actor offering “free” navigation, though acceptance of such measures would effectively acknowledge Iranian sovereignty over the strait—an outcome widely viewed as unacceptable due to its far-reaching implications for global maritime norms. Notably, while China has opposed Iranian tolls and blockade actions, it has not explicitly rejected Iran’s broader sovereignty claims, underscoring ambiguities in international responses. At the same time, reports indicate that Chinese companies have discussed potential arms sales to Iran through third-party channels, though it remains unclear whether Chinese authorities have formally approved such transfers, raising further concerns about external support for Iran’s military capabilities.

Iran’s efforts to rebuild its military capabilities during the ceasefire are consistent with standard post-conflict reconstitution and do not necessarily negate the strategic damage inflicted on its ballistic missile production capacity during the war. At a strategic level, Iran is increasingly elevating the Strait of Hormuz as the central pillar of its future deterrence posture, signaling a shift from its former reliance on missiles, drones, and proxy networks toward greater emphasis on naval leverage. Regime officials and aligned outlets have begun promoting concepts for using the strait not only to deter adversaries but also to generate revenue, which could support renewed military investment. Notably, some regional states appear to be complying with Iranian-imposed transit procedures, as reporting indicates that Iraq and Pakistan have reached arrangements with Iran to transport crude oil and liquefied natural gas through the strait, a trend that risks normalizing Iran’s claim that maritime transit requires its approval.

Iran’s persistent push for international recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz underscores its assessment that control of the waterway is its most powerful deterrent against future U.S. or allied military action, a development that would severely disrupt global shipping and disproportionately harm Gulf states. At the same time, Iran appears to be preparing for a potential resumption of hostilities, as evidenced by reports of IRGC infiltration attempts on Kuwait’s strategically located Bubiyan Island, planned Iranian military drills near the Gulf, and the repositioning of military and civilian aircraft to countries Tehran may believe are less vulnerable to U.S. strikes. These external preparations are closely linked to internal security measures, with the Iranian regime simultaneously conducting major IRGC exercises in Tehran Province, signaling that readiness for renewed conflict with the United States and Israel is intertwined with efforts to maintain domestic control and suppress potential unrest.

Iranian leaders are attempting to dictate the terms for ending the war, indicating that the regime believes it currently holds the strategic upper hand and is seeking to force the United States to relinquish leverage before meaningful negotiations begin, particularly on nuclear issues for which Iran has offered no guarantees of engagement or concessions. At the same time, maritime data suggests some commercial vessels may already be complying with Iran’s new transit regulations in the Strait of Hormuz, a development that, if formalized through recognition of Iranian “sovereignty,” would significantly undermine U.S. interests and global maritime norms. Militarily, Iran claims to have deployed 10,000 first-person view (FPV) drones to its ground forces since the 12-day war in June 2025, likely to bolster defenses against potential ground operations, while also likely transferring FPV drone technology to Hezbollah and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, which have continued using such systems to attack U.S. and Israeli forces during the conflict.

President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest counterproposal on May 10 as “totally unacceptable,” as reporting indicates it calls for ending the war, gradually reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and lifting the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports. On the same day, Iran likely carried out attacks on a commercial vessel and targets in Gulf countries, possibly seeking to sustain high oil prices and apply economic pressure on the United States to force concessions. Iran is also attempting to coerce states into easing economic pressure to allow transit through the strait while exploring revenue generation through a proposed toll scheme. Concurrently, Iranian media have highlighted recent meetings between Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and senior officials, likely aimed at portraying Mojtaba as an active power broker amid reports that his influence within the regime has diminished.

Russia is actively supporting Iran’s efforts to rebuild its military capabilities during the ceasefire, reportedly shipping drone components via the Caspian Sea to help Iran restore offensive missile and drone capacity ahead of a potential renewed conflict with the United States and Israel. During the war, Russia and the People’s Republic of China also backed Iran by providing satellite imagery of U.S. and allied military bases, directly supporting Iranian attacks on those targets. Meanwhile, Iran has not yet responded to the latest U.S. proposal and appears to be using the delay to continue rebuilding its military strength, with Iranian officials signaling they will not adhere to U.S.-imposed timelines while they review the offer.

Iran continues to frame control over the Strait of Hormuz as a central strategic objective and a cornerstone of long-term deterrence, viewing dominance of the strait as a way to compensate for the degradation of its other deterrent capabilities vis-à-vis the United States and Israel. At the same time, Washington and Tehran remain deeply divided over Iran’s nuclear program, the disposition of its highly enriched uranium stockpile, and Iran’s efforts to assert sovereignty over the strait, even as the United States maintains an active naval blockade. Iran has also escalated rhetorically and militarily against the United Arab Emirates, portraying the UAE as a hostile partner of the United States and Israel and signaling that U.S. military action against Iran will impose costs on Gulf states that cooperate with Washington. Compounding these risks, leaked Russian documents indicate Moscow has proposed supplying Iran with thousands of drones and training, raising concerns about the further proliferation of advanced drone technologies to Iran and its regional proxies, some of which have already demonstrated the ability to strike U.S. and allied targets.

U.S. Central Command reported on May 7 that U.S. forces intercepted incoming threats and struck Iranian military facilities responsible for recent attacks on U.S. naval assets near the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing that Washington does not seek escalation. Despite these actions, the United States and Iran remain sharply divided, particularly over Iran’s nuclear program, especially its highly enriched uranium stockpile, and Tehran’s efforts to formalize claims of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, which would significantly undermine U.S. interests and global maritime norms. Against this backdrop, Iranian state media highlighted a meeting between Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian, likely intended to project regime unity amid internal tensions, though the lack of disclosed outcomes suggests Pezeshkian was unsuccessful in persuading Khamenei to curb IRGC attacks on the UAE or shift current policies.

Iran is pursuing positive strategic objectives that go beyond merely surviving the war, foremost among them securing international—particularly U.S.—recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would fundamentally alter regional and global maritime norms to the detriment of U.S. interests. Iranian negotiators have increasingly prioritized control of the strait in talks, likely viewing it as a long-term deterrent against future conflicts with the United States and Israel, while also seeking economic relief that could enable the reconstitution of Iran’s ballistic missile program following the revenue constraints imposed by oil sanctions. These aims complement, rather than replace, Iran’s enduring negative objectives, which include limiting scrutiny of its nuclear program and preventing economic collapse that could trigger domestic unrest and threaten regime stability. In parallel, the regime is actively preparing for potential internal instability by emphasizing economic management, signaling concern about protest-driven risks without suggesting a willingness to capitulate under economic pressure.

Iran has launched a series of targeted attacks against the United Arab Emirates over the past 48 hours, likely aiming to isolate the UAE from other Gulf states by exploiting regional fractures and discouraging collective alignment. By focusing solely on the UAE, Iran appears to be attempting to weaken its ties with neighboring Gulf countries as well as strain its relationships with the United States and Israel, a motive reinforced by Iranian state media citing the UAE’s growing alignment with Washington and Jerusalem. The attacks also seem intended as retaliation for U.S. efforts to restore freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, coming shortly after President Donald Trump announced Project Freedom. Internally, the escalation may reflect power dynamics within Iran, with IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi reportedly seeking to limit diplomatic avenues while pushing a harder line on the strait, even as pragmatist factions voice frustration. In parallel, Iran is advancing bureaucratic mechanisms to formalize claims of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Despite these developments, senior U.S. defense officials stated that Iran’s May 4 attacks did not violate the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, and Washington has not yet commented publicly on Iran’s May 5 attack on the UAE.

Iran is seeking to assert its perceived control over the Strait of Hormuz amid U.S. efforts to ensure freedom of commercial navigation, attempting to undermine those efforts through attacks on commercial shipping, energy infrastructure in the UAE, and a civilian building in Oman. Allowing Iran to exert control over the strait would run counter to U.S. interests, as it would enable Tehran to impose significant economic costs on the United States and global markets while gaining leverage in negotiations on critical issues such as its nuclear program. Despite these concerns, President Donald Trump stated on May 4 that Iran’s most recent actions did not constitute a ceasefire violation, noting an absence of “heavy firing” when questioned about the incidents.

Iran’s counterproposal to the United States reportedly outlines a three-phase approach that prioritizes ending the war, securing guarantees against future joint military strikes on Iran, and addressing the Strait of Hormuz in an initial phase, while deferring substantive discussions on its nuclear program to a later stage. By postponing nuclear talks, Iran appears to be seeking an end to hostilities and relief from the U.S. naval blockade before making any concrete commitments, offering only the possibility of future discussions on measures such as pausing uranium enrichment or managing its highly enriched uranium stockpile. Despite these signals, Iran has not made firm concessions on its nuclear program, prompting skepticism in Washington, with President Donald Trump stating on May 1 that he was “not satisfied” with the proposal, even as U.S. officials have reportedly issued a response.

Iran’s latest proposal suggests it has not shifted its negotiating stance on key issues, including its nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz, with some elements of the regime likely believing they can impose enough economic and political costs to pressure the United States into concessions. In parallel, Iran is taking measures to cope with the U.S. naval blockade by reportedly reducing oil production as storage capacity fills, a step aimed at preserving oil field integrity rather than fully shutting production. Regionally, concerns are also growing over Hezbollah’s capabilities, as the group released footage indicating domestic drone production, reinforcing Israeli assessments that Hezbollah may be manufacturing first-person view drones locally, though the exact type shown remains unconfirmed.

President Donald Trump has signaled continued dissatisfaction with Iran’s latest proposal, underscoring Tehran’s ongoing inflexibility on core issues such as its nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, Iran appears to be using the current ceasefire to rebuild its military capabilities, with reports indicating efforts to recover missile and drone launchers hidden or buried after U.S. and Israeli strikes—assets that could be used to quickly resume attacks against U.S., Israeli, and regional targets if hostilities restart. Domestically, Iranian officials and media are attempting to deflect blame for the country’s severe economic deterioration onto U.S. military pressure and sanctions, despite the fact that long-standing regime mismanagement, systemic corruption, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ dominant role in the economy have been major drivers of Iran’s economic decline.

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s commitment to retaining control over the Strait of Hormuz and preserving Iran’s nuclear and missile programs signals a firm stance against making significant concessions to the United States. Key Iranian officials who previously advocated for pragmatic negotiations now appear to support hardline redlines set by Vahidi, with Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi reportedly coordinating closely with him. Despite public acquiescence, Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf and President Pezeshkian are dissatisfied with this approach. Meanwhile, Iran continues efforts to create rifts between Gulf states and the United States, aiming to encourage the removal of US forces from the region.

Iran is maintaining a hardline stance in negotiations with the United States, particularly regarding control over the Strait of Hormuz and its nuclear program, as guided by IRGC Major General Ahmad Vahidi. Mainstream Iranian politicians are unified in refusing to discuss the nuclear issue until the US lifts the naval blockade on their ports. Attempts to legitimize Iranian sovereignty over the Strait by involving Oman in a toll collection scheme have failed, and leaders are preparing for possible economic collapse, unrest, or renewed US-Israeli military action. To address mounting economic pressure from war, sanctions, and blockade, Iran is focusing on internal unity and security, while also considering alternative ways to bypass the blockade, such as seizing vessels or expanding trade with Russia and Caspian neighbors. Additionally, Iran has used the ceasefire period to rebuild its missile and drone capabilities.

Iran’s negotiation stance remains uncompromising, driven by confidence from Major General Ahmad Vahidi and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, despite substantial economic and social pressures. The United States has rejected Iran’s latest proposal, citing unresolved concerns over Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its asserted control of the Strait of Hormuz. Mounting challenges in oil storage and export, along with broader economic deterioration and prolonged internet shutdowns, are straining regime stability and fueling fears of protests. Political infighting is intensifying, with hardline factions clashing publicly, while Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf maneuvers to retain influence amid opposition from Vahidi’s camp. Meanwhile, Iran’s continued cooperation with Russia and China signals preparation for possible renewed conflict with the US and Israel.

Iran is leveraging its strategic position over the Strait of Hormuz to negotiate an end to the war that would result in the lifting of the US blockade on Iranian ports, without requiring immediate nuclear concessions. Facing limited oil storage capacity, Iran is motivated to seek relief from the blockade, which has forced the country to store oil in suboptimal conditions. Additionally, Iran has underscored the importance of its strategic relationship with Russia, which has provided valuable military support, including satellite imagery. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has escalated its use of first-person view drones in attacks against Israeli forces in Lebanon, increasingly relying on fiber-optic technology since the ceasefire took effect.

US-Iran negotiations remain unlikely due to the IRGC's control over Iranian policy and resistance to compromise, despite diplomatic efforts such as a meeting in Oman to discuss regional security. Meanwhile, Israel has deepened its security relationship with the UAE by deploying an Iron Dome battery and IDF personnel, following coordination between Israeli and Emirati leaders.

US-Iran negotiations are unlikely to yield meaningful progress as the Iranian decision-making process remains dominated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which resists compromise and sidelines civilian officials, leaving the negotiating team powerless to make independent choices. This persistent inflexibility prompted US President Donald Trump to cancel planned talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, involving US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Meanwhile, Hezbollah is conducting smaller attacks in northern Israel and southern Lebanon, aiming to demonstrate its capability to threaten Israeli security without crossing the threshold that would provoke major Israeli retaliation.

Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi and his inner circle have successfully blocked efforts by “pragmatist” officials, such as Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, to promote a more flexible negotiating stance, resulting in Vahidi’s uncompromising approach dominating regime policy. Ghalibaf has reportedly considered resigning from the negotiating team due to frustration with internal divisions and disagreements over nuclear concessions, signaling that pragmatist influence is waning. Vahidi’s victory is expected to impact future US-Iran negotiations, as he is more open to the risk of renewed conflict with the US. Meanwhile, Iran and the US are sending delegations to Islamabad for potential talks mediated by Pakistan, and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have conducted drone attacks on Kuwaiti border posts. Additionally, the US naval blockade is forcing Iran to expand its floating oil storage capacity due to limited onshore options.

US President Donald Trump’s messages have prompted a coordinated response from the Iranian regime, with officials issuing statements to signal unity and quell internal disputes between pragmatic and hardliner factions. Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, despite issuing statements to demonstrate unity, is reported to be incapacitated due to war injuries and now depends heavily on the guidance of senior IRGC commanders, especially Major General Ahmad Vahidi. Vahidi, a first-generation revolutionary, maintains a strong stance on Iranian sovereignty and the nuclear program, viewing US negotiations as futile and prioritizing ideological purity and hard power over economic or social concerns.

The IRGC Navy recently attacked and redirected two vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, likely to enforce Iranian sovereignty claims and retaliate for the US Navy's seizure of an Iranian ship. These actions, along with IRGC Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi's willingness to abandon US-Iran negotiations, signal Iran's readiness to escalate tensions and risk a US military response. However, Iran's internal decision-making remains fragmented, preventing a unified approach to negotiations and leaving key regime mechanisms ineffective. Meanwhile, US officials have released estimates of Iranian military assets post-ceasefire, but these figures alone are insufficient to accurately assess Iran's military strength.

The United States has extended its ceasefire with Iran, while maintaining a blockade of Iranian ports, pending the submission and conclusion of Iran's proposal. Recent conflicting reports highlight ongoing power struggles within Iran's regime, particularly between Speaker Ghalibaf and IRGC Commander Vahidi, with the latter currently holding more influence. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are responsible for a significant portion of drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, indicating persistent Iranian support for such actions. Meanwhile, Hezbollah resumed attacks on Israeli forces in southern Lebanon and northern Israel following the recent Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, prompting retaliatory strikes by the IDF.

The Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is involved in an intense debate with IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi and other officials who oppose negotiations with the United States, with Vahidi currently holding more influence due to his direct access to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. While US and Iranian delegations plan a second round of talks in Islamabad, the US Navy continues to enforce a blockade of Iranian ports, redirecting vessels and seizing the Iranian-flagged Touska, which Iranian officials claim violated the ceasefire. Meanwhile, the Iranian Parliament is drafting legislation to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, including restrictions on Israeli-linked and hostile vessels, as well as reparations for states that have harmed Iran.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is marked by Iran’s efforts to control the strategic Strait of Hormuz, including establishing a protection racket that prioritizes vessels paying fees and following IRGC protocols, while restricting access for others. The United States has responded by seizing Iranian-linked ships, signaling resistance to Iran’s attempts to regulate transit. High-level US officials are scheduled to negotiate with Iran in Islamabad, although Iran’s participation remains unconfirmed. Meanwhile, incomplete reporting on US-Israeli strikes leaves uncertainty regarding Iran’s missile and drone capabilities. Additionally, IRGC Quds Force Commander Ghaani has reportedly coordinated with Iraqi militias to prepare for potential renewed conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Gulf states.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), led by Major General Ahmad Vahidi, has asserted significant influence over Iran’s military actions and negotiation strategies, particularly in the past 48 hours. The IRGC Navy’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and refusal to participate in new US-Iran talks demonstrate its dominance, sidelining traditional political negotiators in favor of military leadership. These actions appear designed both to gain leverage over the United States by disrupting commercial shipping and oil prices, and to reinforce the IRGC’s internal authority. Meanwhile, the US Navy maintains a strict blockade of Iranian ports, turning away numerous ships and preventing any Iranian vessels from challenging the blockade.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has asserted control over maritime transit in the Strait of Hormuz by imposing conditions for vessel passage, requiring coordination with Iranian forces and limiting transit to commercial vessels not linked to belligerent countries. Internal divisions within the Iranian regime are evident, as the IRGC criticized Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi’s declaration that the strait remains open. US forces have successfully prevented Iranian-linked vessels from breaching their blockade, while non-Iranian-linked ships continue to transit freely. Negotiations between the US and Iran are ongoing but stalled by significant disagreements, with some Iranian officials advocating for a preliminary ceasefire extension that would allow Iran to further reorganize its ballistic missile capabilities.

US-Iran negotiations are currently hindered by Iran’s uranium enrichment and its enriched uranium stockpile, with the IRGC taking a strong role in the process typically led by civilian authorities. Despite claims of progress, Iran has not compromised on its nuclear stance or control over the Strait of Hormuz, using its strategic position to leverage concessions. President Trump asserted that a deal is near, with Iran purportedly agreeing to hand over its uranium, though Iran has not confirmed this publicly. The US maintains a blockade targeting Iran’s military capabilities and continues to impose economic pressure. Meanwhile, Iran’s missile force is rebuilding operational units during a ceasefire, but restoring strategic-level infrastructure remains difficult. Separately, Trump announced a 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, with Netanyahu demanding Hezbollah’s disarmament and a permanent peace agreement.

US naval forces have maintained a blockade on Iranian ports, with no breaches reported in the initial 48 hours, while the United States has set conditions for further negotiations, demanding Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ensure its delegation has authority to finalize any deal. Internal divisions among Iranian officials are evident, with varying willingness to compromise on the nuclear program, and the US-Israeli stance centers on the removal of enriched uranium as a prerequisite for ending their campaign. Economic pressure has intensified with US Treasury sanctions on entities linked to Iranian oil smuggling. Pakistan is urging a ceasefire extension, though President Trump opposes prolonging the current ceasefire, which Iran is using to revitalize its missile program. Iran’s use of a Chinese reconnaissance satellite for targeting US assets during the conflict is noted, and Israeli officials are deliberating a potential ceasefire in Lebanon, though outcomes remain undisclosed.

The US Central Command's blockade on Iranian ports has effectively halted vessel breaches since its implementation on April 13, with the blockade lacking defined boundaries and allowing US interdiction in international waters. The US decision not to renew a 30-day sanctions waiver expiring April 19 will further limit Iran's oil export capabilities, as enforcement of sanctions is set to intensify. Iran is reportedly considering a temporary pause on shipments to avoid escalating tensions, but this strategy is unsustainable due to storage constraints; other options include negotiating with the US, attempting to bypass the blockade, or resuming conflict. Iranian officials have threatened to increase economic pressure on US allies and potentially leverage regional groups like the Houthis to disrupt maritime routes. Meanwhile, discussions between the US and Iran could occur between April 17 and 19, though no date has been confirmed.

Recent events indicate that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are responsible for several drone attacks against Gulf states, likely with the tacit approval of Iran, as there is no evidence the regime has discouraged such actions. During negotiations in Pakistan, the US delegation demanded a 20-year moratorium on Iranian uranium enrichment, removal of highly enriched uranium from Iran, and unrestricted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran countered with shorter terms for enrichment and proposed downblending its uranium stockpile instead of transferring it. Meanwhile, US Central Command (CENTCOM) imposed a blockade on Iranian ports and vessels as of 10:00 AM ET on April 13, while facilitating transit for non-Iranian vessels. Before the blockade, Iranian and approved vessels used designated routes through the Strait, but after the blockade, more vessels shifted to routes near Oman, and some oil tankers bound for China reversed course following CENTCOM's action.

Tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated around the Strait of Hormuz, with the US Navy seeking to block Iranian and Iranian-approved ships while Iran restricts passage for all other vessels, resulting in limited maritime traffic through the area. Diplomatic talks in Islamabad on April 11 and 12 failed to yield an agreement, as the US prioritized navigation freedom and nuclear concerns, whereas Iran pushed for a broader transformation in bilateral relations. The presence of multiple Iranian factions with varying goals further complicated negotiations. Since the April 8 ceasefire, Iran has notably reduced its missile and drone attacks against Gulf states, and none have targeted Gulf nations since April 11.

Iran and the United States are at odds over the scope of ongoing negotiations, with Iran seeking a comprehensive resolution to end hostilities while the US focuses narrowly on de-escalation around the Strait of Hormuz and related issues. Iran’s strategy of deploying naval mines and forcing merchant ships into its waters enables it to demand illegal fees, aiming to disrupt global trade and pressure the US for concessions. The ceasefire allows Iran to rebuild its missile force, previously hampered by US and Israeli operations, and recover from leadership injuries sustained in a recent strike. Meanwhile, China is reportedly preparing to supply Iran with man-portable air-defense systems to help restore its air defense capabilities.

Negotiations between Iran and the US in Islamabad have been marked by persistent disagreements on issues including nuclear enrichment, missile programs, sanctions, and the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian negotiating team is fragmented, complicating ceasefire talks, while President Trump has accused Iran of “short-term extortion.” Drone incidents involving Iranian forces have occurred in Kuwaiti airspace and near the US Embassy in Baghdad, with evidence pointing to IRGC involvement in guiding militia attacks. Hezbollah has carried out numerous attacks targeting Israeli forces and infrastructure. Iran’s banks face severe economic challenges, raising concerns about regime stability, and the country is reportedly restricting access to the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center to protect its highly enriched uranium stockpile.

Iran, the United States, and Israel have not engaged in direct hostilities since April 8, though Gulf states continue to face drone attacks. The US Government acknowledged a new, modified proposal from Iran as a foundation for ongoing talks, with mediators reporting that Iran has eased several demands, including those related to nuclear enrichment and US military presence. Meanwhile, Iran is actively seeking to control maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to leverage elevated oil prices for economic advantage in negotiations. Tensions also persist regarding Lebanon; Iranian officials insist on Lebanon’s inclusion in ceasefire talks, but Israel refuses to halt operations against Hezbollah, with both sides escalating military activity and Israeli leaders pushing for negotiations on disarmament with Lebanon.

The United States and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire agreement, mediated by Pakistan, with negotiations scheduled to begin in Islamabad based on Iran's ten-point proposal. Although the ceasefire excludes Lebanon, as confirmed by US President Donald Trump and US and Israeli officials, Hezbollah claims to have been informed it would be a party to the deal. The Israeli Defense Forces intensified their campaign in Lebanon, conducting extensive airstrikes against Hezbollah targets, including infrastructure in Beirut and other regions. Despite the ceasefire, Iran continues to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in significantly reduced vessel traffic. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi played a key role in persuading IRGC commanders to accept the ceasefire, amid the consolidation of power by veteran hardline commanders within the Iranian regime.

The United States and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, facilitated by Pakistan, set to begin negotiations in Islamabad on April 11. Iran will permit safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz during this period, while Israel has agreed to halt operations against Iran and Hezbollah if Iran stops activities in the strait. The ceasefire extends to allies on both sides, with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif confirming immediate cessation of hostilities in multiple regions. Meanwhile, combined force strikes may have disrupted Iran's weapon transportation networks, and Russia is reportedly assisting Iran with satellite imagery to support attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. Key Iranian military leaders are directing the nation’s response to US and Israeli air campaigns, according to sources close to President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Iran declined a ceasefire proposal from the United States to pause the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, making a resolution before President Trump’s April 7 deadline unlikely. Trump has threatened to target Iranian energy infrastructure if no deal is reached. Meanwhile, Iran, Hezbollah, and the Houthis coordinated attacks against Israel on April 6, likely aiming to amplify the psychological impact given Iran’s limited capacity for large-scale assaults. In response, the Israel Defense Forces announced they struck Iran’s two largest petrochemical facilities, which together represent the majority of Iran’s petrochemical exports and included infrastructure for missile production.

The recent developments in the Middle East highlight escalating tensions involving the US, Iran, Hezbollah, and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias. US President Donald Trump has extended Iran’s deadline to cease attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran has vowed to continue such actions. US forces, after rescuing F-15E crewmembers shot down by Iran, have persisted in striking Iranian targets, including missile-related facilities. The IDF is actively targeting Iranian tunnel entrances, and Iran is modifying its strike tactics against Gulf states. Hezbollah has released footage of drone attacks on Israeli targets and claimed to launch anti-ship missiles at Israeli vessels, though these efforts have not altered Israel’s airstrike strategy. Meanwhile, Iraqi militias are attempting to shift blame for attacks on oil infrastructure toward Kuwait to obscure their involvement.

Despite the loss of two US aircraft, the combined US and Israeli force continues to maintain air superiority over Iran, with Iranian air defenses posing no significant obstacle to ongoing operations. China’s support for Iran’s ballistic missile program presents a challenge, potentially undermining efforts to degrade or destroy those capabilities. Additionally, the combined force targeted the Iran-Iraq border crossing at Shalamcheh in Khuzestan Province, responding to reports of PMF fighters deploying to Basij bases in the area.

Iran's ballistic missile program comprises both combat and support elements, making it difficult to assess its overall status based on a single aspect. Many Iranian missile launchers are rendered combat ineffective, either due to burial or inability to move, and there is uncertainty regarding the types of launchers affected. The US-Israeli campaign has significantly targeted Iran’s defense industrial base, complicating efforts to restore its missile and drone capabilities. Additionally, Iran reportedly shot down a US Air Force F-15E over its territory, marking a notable loss for the US. Meanwhile, Israel has announced plans to establish a security zone along the Lebanon border, which may lead to the destruction of Lebanese villages and increase Hezbollah's justification for its defensive role in Lebanon.

The combined force has expanded its operations in Iran, targeting not only military assets but also facilities linked to biological and chemical weapons and key economic infrastructure, including pharmaceutical companies and steel factories. US President Donald Trump announced that American strategic objectives are close to completion, vowing continued strikes over the next few weeks amid ongoing indirect negotiations with Iran. US forces destroyed the B1 Bridge to hinder Iran’s missile transfers to the west, where their launch capabilities have been weakened. Meanwhile, Hezbollah is intensifying attacks on Israel during Passover, prompting warnings from Israeli officials that their leadership will face severe consequences for targeting civilians.

Iran is leveraging its strategic position around the Strait of Hormuz to influence post-war negotiations, continuing attacks on international shipping and refusing to halt disruptions unless the United States and Israel cease their military actions. The Israeli Defense Forces have targeted Iranian weapons production sites and facilities supplying materials for chemical weapons, also eliminating key figures linked to underground weapons storage. Iran has escalated its offensive with large missile salvoes against Israel and launched drones and ballistic missiles at Bahrain, responding to threats against US-linked technology companies. Hezbollah and the Houthis have intensified their attacks, with Hezbollah striking numerous targets in Israel and Lebanon, and the Houthis coordinating missile strikes on Israel with support from Iran and Hezbollah, reflecting a broad regional conflict involving multiple actors.

Targeted campaigns against Iranian commanders have greatly disrupted their ability to coordinate and carry out large-scale attacks, resulting in both immediate operational setbacks and a heightened sense of caution among commanders. Iran’s missile strikes on Israel have dwindled to their lowest frequency since March 20, likely reflecting ongoing command-and-control issues. In addition, Iran’s Parliament passed a bill asserting sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a move to obstruct international shipping and potentially leverage these actions for political gain. The Iranian-backed militia Kataib Hezbollah is believed to have kidnapped a US journalist in Baghdad, and Hezbollah carried out multiple FPV drone strikes against Israeli armored vehicles in southern Lebanon, which lacked sufficient protective armor.

Since the start of the war on February 28, the combined force led by the US and Israel has struck thousands of targets in Iran, including air defense sites and defense industrial facilities, significantly degrading Iran’s missile and drone production capabilities. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have destroyed over 80 percent of Iran’s air defense systems and continue to expand air dominance, while the United States claims to have destroyed most of Iran’s largest vessels. NATO intercepted Iranian ballistic missiles entering Turkish airspace multiple times, and Iran has targeted civilian infrastructure in the Gulf, such as a water desalination plant in Kuwait, resulting in casualties. Hezbollah has conducted numerous attacks against Israeli targets, and the Houthis have launched drone attacks on Israel, indicating the broad regional involvement and escalation.

The ongoing conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel has seen combined forces striking Iranian ballistic missile production facilities and launch bases. Senior IRGC officials continue to dismiss Iranian President Pezeshkian’s concerns about the deteriorating economic situation, revealing growing tensions within the regime. To strengthen internal security, Iran has launched a nationalist recruitment campaign called “Janfada” to encourage volunteers to oppose US forces. Additionally, Russia is supporting Iran by supplying satellite imagery of US, Turkish, British, and Saudi assets, enabling Iranian attacks on a range of regional targets since the war began.

Recent developments in the Middle East and Eurasia highlight escalating tensions and strategic maneuvers. The Houthis entered the conflict by launching missile and drone attacks on southern Israel, signaling a cautious approach to avoid immediate escalation with the United States and Israel. Iran’s leadership sought to project stability amid turmoil, as Mojtaba Khamenei’s Telegram channel published an infographic on the “resistance economy” despite reports of his serious injury. Meanwhile, Iran and Russia have engaged in active discussions about transferring upgraded Russian drones to Iran, following reports of Russian Shahed drones being provided. Ukraine and Qatar signed a decade-long defense agreement covering technology, air defenses, counter-drone measures, training, and cybersecurity. The combined force continues to target Iranian defense industrial facilities, while US forces have struck a border guard outpost in Iran’s Kurdistan Province near the Iraqi border.

Recent military operations in Iran have seen a combined force conducting strikes as far northeast as Mashhad, indicating a progression of attacks from west to east targeting distant campaign locations. The IDF has intensified efforts against Iranian leadership, notably announcing the elimination of IRGC Navy Commander Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri in Bandar Abbas. Amid operational disruptions and recruitment challenges, the IRGC has lowered its minimum recruitment age to 12. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has reported a high frequency of attacks, claiming 73 strikes against Israeli targets in northern Israel and southern Lebanon, including towns, within a 24-hour period.

The United States has proposed a comprehensive 15-point deal to Iran, delivered via Pakistan, which demands Iran dismantle its nuclear program, halt uranium enrichment, relinquish its stockpile, restrict missile capabilities, stop supporting the Axis of Resistance, and ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. While the Trump administration awaits Iran’s formal response, it has threatened further military action if a resolution is not reached. Meanwhile, Iran has informed the International Maritime Organization that only “non-hostile” ships—excluding those linked to the US, Israel, or their allies—may transit the Strait of Hormuz if coordinated with Iranian intermediaries. Recent drone footage from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, potentially showcasing advanced fiber-optic FPV drone technology, could challenge US interests in the region if authenticated. Additionally, there has been an increase in strikes on Iranian defense industry sites, reportedly following Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s directive to significantly damage Iran’s arms industry within 48 hours.

Iran has shifted its missile attack strategy against Israel by launching smaller salvos throughout the day, aiming to psychologically impact civilians through frequent alerts and sheltering. This approach is seen as a result of the US-Israeli combined force’s effective disruption of Iran’s capacity for large-scale missile attacks, including targeted strikes on underground missile launch sites. Iran has also increased its use of cluster munitions, reflecting its reduced ability to threaten specific military targets and its continued focus on psychological warfare. Meanwhile, Ukraine and Saudi Arabia signed a defense cooperation agreement, with Ukraine providing support for Saudi air defenses and establishing further technological and investment collaboration. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have carried out strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, targeting facilities involved in plutonium production and the uranium fuel cycle, particularly after repeated Iranian attempts to restore these sites following previous conflicts.

Iran has implemented a requirement for some vessels to pay a fee for transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with reports indicating that over 20 ships have used an Iranian-approved route and at least two, including a Chinese state-owned tanker, have paid for safe passage. In response to escalating tensions, a combined force has conducted extensive strikes on Iranian ballistic missile infrastructure and industrial sites linked to Iran’s Ministry of Defense, with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) carrying out more than 600 strikes on missile sites and an “extensive” wave of attacks on production facilities in Esfahan Province. Meanwhile, Iran has launched nine missile waves against Israel, including the use of cluster munitions aimed at inflicting greater destruction and instilling fear among civilians. Hezbollah has intensified its operations as well, claiming 54 attacks targeting Israeli military positions and towns in northern Israel and southern Lebanon within a 24-hour period, prompting the IDF to prepare for expanded ground and air operations in Lebanon.

Recent developments indicate heightened diplomatic and military activity involving Iran, the United States, Israel, and regional actors. US President Donald Trump extended Iran’s deadline to finalize a deal, emphasizing Iran’s commitment to halt uranium enrichment and missile activities. Despite public denial of negotiations by Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, reports suggest he has consolidated significant influence since the current conflict began. Meanwhile, combined forces are conducting airstrikes on Iranian missile infrastructure and IRGC units, and Iran is reportedly reducing attacks on Saudi Arabia to avoid provoking a military response. In parallel, Hezbollah has escalated attacks against Israeli positions in northern Israel and southern Lebanon, increasingly utilizing drones alongside rockets.

On March 21, US President Donald Trump threatened to destroy Iranian power plants if Iran failed to fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, leading Iran to respond with threats against regional energy infrastructure. Since the war began on February 28, Iranian forces have conducted multiple attacks on energy infrastructure, and new threats could signal further escalation. Meanwhile, IRGC Ground Forces Commander Brigadier General Mohammad Karami visited western and northwestern units amid concerns about Kurdish mobilization and internal security issues near the Iran-Iraq border. The combined force continues to target Iranian missile production and storage facilities, focusing on short- and medium-range ballistic missiles—including models supplied to Russia for use in Ukraine. Following Israeli operations in 2024 that weakened Hezbollah's leadership, the IRGC has reorganized Hezbollah under a decentralized command model to improve operational security and reduce vulnerability to intelligence breaches.

On March 21, Iran launched two ballistic missiles at the US-UK base in Diego Garcia, marking its longest-range missile attempt to date; while one missile failed, the other was intercepted by the United States. This action demonstrated Iran's capacity to strike targets beyond its previously stated 2,000-kilometer missile range. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has increased its influence within Iran, filling a power vacuum amid leadership instability. In response, the United States Treasury Department issued a short-term waiver on March 20 allowing the sale of Iranian oil already in transit, but not new purchases, while coordinated forces continued efforts to degrade Iran’s missile production, with the IDF targeting at least five missile production sites in Tehran.

There is ongoing instability in the region, as reports suggest that Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains seriously injured or incapacitated, with the regime notably refraining from releasing evidence to counter these claims. Meanwhile, Iranian leadership has declared their intention to continue disrupting international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz even after the conflict concludes, signaling a persistent threat to maritime security. Additionally, Hezbollah has claimed responsibility for 55 attacks targeting Israeli military forces and positions in both northern Israel and southern Lebanon within a 24-hour period, highlighting the continued escalation of hostilities in the area.

The latest Israeli strikes have targeted Iranian internal security forces and naval assets, causing disruption and confusion within Iran’s security apparatus and impacting its operational capabilities. The IDF’s attacks on vessels at Bandar Anzali port, reportedly including the destruction of the IRIS Deylaman frigate, coincide with concerns over Russia supplying Iran with modified Shahed drones. Meanwhile, the combined force has significantly degraded Iran’s missile and air defense infrastructure, with reports indicating around 85 percent of surface-to-air missiles destroyed. Iran has responded with drone and missile attacks against Gulf states, notably targeting Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, prompting threats from the US. Additionally, Hezbollah conducted its longest-range missile attack yet against southern Israel, signaling escalating regional tensions and the use of advanced weaponry by multiple actors.

On March 18, the IDF launched strikes on major Iranian energy infrastructure, targeting the South Pars natural gas field and the Asaluyeh processing hub, both crucial to Iran’s domestic supply and economic stability, with repercussions extending to regional energy consumers like Iraq and Turkey. In a separate operation, the IDF killed Iranian Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib, who had overseen the regime’s suppression of previous protests, contributing to increased paranoia and diminished morale within Iran's security services—many of whom are now altering their routines for fear of further attacks. Simultaneously, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 57 attacks on Israeli positions in northern Israel and southern Lebanon, while Israeli forces continued airstrikes against Hezbollah’s networks in Lebanon.

The United States and Israel are actively attempting to stop Iran from disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, recognizing that a failure to do so could embolden Iran to cause future disruptions with minimal resistance. The Israel Defense Forces recently targeted the IRGC Navy headquarters in Tehran, which played a central role in orchestrating operations against Israel and others in the region, and killed Supreme National Security Council member Ali Larijani, potentially weakening one faction within Iran's leadership but not ending internal rivalries. Additionally, an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia publicly showcased a sophisticated fiber optic FPV drone, signaling an explicit threat to the United States and highlighting the ongoing escalation and complexity of the conflict.

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's inner circle is composed of seasoned hardline IRGC commanders, whose continued dominance in Iran's hierarchy is likely to push the country toward more hardline, anti-Western policies and increased regime securitization and corruption. The Iranian regime has further clamped down on information flow by tightening internet restrictions and targeting individuals using Starlink and VPNs, making external observation of events more challenging. Recent military activity includes a strike on a suspected Iranian drone facility deep in South Khorasan Province, demonstrating the combined force's operational reach within Iran. Additionally, while Iran has not attacked vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since March 12, footage suggests that US forces maintain at least local air dominance along portions of Iran's Gulf of Oman coast, providing the capability to protect shipping by engaging aerial threats if necessary.

Ukrainian intelligence revealed that Iran has deployed Russian-produced Shahed drones to strike US bases and Gulf countries — a claim confirmed by President Zelensky. At the same time, US-Israeli forces have carried out strikes on Iranian military infrastructure across multiple provinces. For the first time, Iran is reported to have launched a Sejjil ballistic missile at Israel, according to Iranian officials and media. Iranian authorities are actively working to conceal their involvement in drone and missile attacks on Gulf states, likely aiming to disrupt relations between the US, Israel, and Gulf nations. US and Israeli intelligence suggest the IRGC has taken the lead in decision-making due to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s injury. Despite the ongoing hostilities, neither US nor Iranian officials appear interested in negotiating a ceasefire, with President Trump asserting that the current terms offered by Iran are insufficient.

Tensions and military activity are escalating in the Middle East as Israel prepares to expand its ground operations in Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah infrastructure south of the Litani River and aiming to push Hezbollah’s forces further north. Despite diplomatic mediation from Oman and Egypt, neither Iran nor the United States are willing to enter ceasefire talks. Meanwhile, the United States carried out precision strikes on Iranian military sites on Kharg Island to reduce Iran’s threat to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported no vessel attacks in the region over the past 48 hours but emphasized that the security situation remains critical. During this period, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 43 attacks against Israeli targets within a single day, marking the highest number of daily attacks since the conflict began.

The US and Israel have intensified their coordinated military efforts against Iran, focusing on degrading the regime’s internal security and defense industrial infrastructure. Recent operations have targeted Iranian missile production capabilities, with US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claiming these strikes have severely impacted Iran’s ability to manufacture ballistic missiles. Meanwhile, Iran is selectively permitting commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, seemingly aiming to disrupt maritime traffic with missiles and drones without fully mining the passage, likely to avoid severe political and economic repercussions. Concurrently, Israeli officials are deliberating potential expansions of ground operations in Lebanon, considering options from large-scale incursions to limited actions in the southern region.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has conducted strikes against multiple security sites in Iran’s Khuzestan Province, including key law enforcement and military headquarters. In coordination with the US, the combined force has systematically targeted and severely reduced Iranian air defense systems and ballistic missile infrastructure, with reports indicating up to 80 percent of Iran’s air defenses and 60 percent of its missile launchers destroyed. Additionally, US Central Command reported the tragic loss of six US servicemembers in a non-hostile incident involving a KC-135 refueling tanker in western Iraq.

Following the selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s supreme leader, the regime has reaffirmed its commitment to expelling American influence from the Middle East and destroying Israel. Recent events include an Iranian-linked cyberattack on a US healthcare company, part of broader efforts to pressure the US, as well as ongoing US and Israeli strikes targeting Iranian security and military sites across multiple provinces. Reports suggest deepening divisions within Iran’s armed forces, particularly between the Artesh and IRGC, though there is no indication of mass defections. US Central Command has also taken action to limit Iran’s maritime threats, destroying numerous minelaying vessels and targeting related infrastructure, while Hezbollah has increased its use of drones against Israeli forces, marking a tactical shift from previous conflicts.

Iran has intensified its efforts to disrupt maritime traffic in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz by targeting commercial vessels, including attacks on the SAFESEA VISHNU and ZEFYROS near Basra. Additionally, Iran has launched projectiles at civilian and oil infrastructure in several Gulf States such as the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has escalated its operations against Israeli forces, claiming 27 attacks in northern Israel within an 18-hour period, the highest observed since the conflict began. In response, the Israeli Defense Forces are preparing to expand ground activity in southern Lebanon, following instructions from Israeli leadership to increase their operations in the region.

Tensions in the Middle East persist as Iran continues its efforts to degrade Gulf air defenses, though interception rates of ballistic missiles remain largely unchanged. Iran is also likely seeking to threaten and disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz without fully blocking its own crude exports, possibly by mining the waterway. Combined forces have targeted Iranian internal security sites, particularly in Kurdish regions known for anti-regime protests and clashes. Russia is reportedly providing Iran with advanced drone tactics and sharing information on US military asset locations, reflecting closer collaboration between the two countries. China is supplying Iran with precursors for solid missile fuel, supporting its ballistic missile program. In Lebanon, Hezbollah’s political support appears to be weakening as its ally, the Amal Movement, recently backed a government ban on Hezbollah’s military activity.

Iran has demonstrated a willingness and capability to mine the Strait of Hormuz, though it has deployed fewer than 10 naval mines due to concerns over potential political and economic repercussions. It continues to disrupt maritime traffic by targeting commercial vessels, as evidenced by an unmanned surface vessel attack on a Thai cargo ship. Meanwhile, the US and Israeli forces have launched strikes against Iranian security and military targets across 10 provinces since March 10, and Iran persists in attacking Gulf States and Israel, with Saudi Arabia intercepting 13 Iranian drones targeting various locations. Additionally, Hezbollah has claimed multiple attacks against IDF positions and has fired over 850 rockets at Israel since early March.

Developments in the Middle East include US forces destroying 16 Iranian minelayers near the Strait of Hormuz, part of Iran’s broader campaign to disrupt maritime traffic and exert pressure on Gulf states and the United States. These mining efforts are likely to further impede Iran’s own oil exports, particularly to China. In response to ongoing conflict and concerns over US-Israeli infiltration, the Iranian regime is intensifying internal securitization and counterintelligence measures, echoing similar strategies following the June 2025 Iran-Israel War. Meanwhile, a combined force has targeted key Iranian internal security sites in western and northwestern Iran and continues to strike Iranian-backed Iraqi militia positions to prevent retaliatory attacks. Additionally, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 29 attacks against Israeli forces in northern Israel and southern Lebanon within a 24-hour period, marking the highest number of such attacks observed since the conflict began.

Between March 9 and 10, a combined force launched strikes on key targets in Tehran and Bandar Abbas, including the IRGC Quds Force headquarters and several tactical airbases, significantly impacting Iran's military infrastructure. Iran responded by firing three missile barrages at Israel, although this represented the lowest missile activity since the war began, with a notable portion containing cluster warheads. Meanwhile, Hezbollah claimed numerous attacks against IDF positions in northern Israel and southern Lebanon, using long-range and high-quality missiles. The IDF continued its airstrikes across Lebanon to weaken Hezbollah's offensive capabilities and advanced into southern Lebanon on multiple fronts.

The US-Israeli combined force has significantly weakened Iran’s missile and drone capabilities, limiting its ability to retaliate in the region. In addition, strikes have targeted Iran’s internal security apparatus, with dozens of security institutions hit since late February, including the Sahab Pardaz Company, known for its role in internet censorship. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has been using long-range projectiles to attack Israel and is expected to intensify rocket and drone attacks soon in an effort to divert Israeli attention from Iran.

Military operations have targeted key Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Ground Forces sites in Iran's Esfahan Province, including the Seyyed ol Shohada Operational Base and the 14th Imam Hossein Division, which played roles in both regional security and the Syrian civil war. Additionally, the Saheb ol Zaman Provincial Unit, known for protest suppression, was struck. Iran has continued its attacks on Israel and other regional states, notably launching a ballistic missile intercepted over Turkey and deploying cluster munitions in central Israel, resulting in casualties. Israeli forces have also targeted Law Enforcement Command institutions in Esfahan, and Hezbollah claims to have engaged Israeli troops advancing into Lebanon on multiple fronts.

Recent developments in the Middle East include the selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s new Supreme Leader, signaling the continued dominance of hardline factions. Ukraine is sharing its expertise in countering Iranian drones with Gulf states, enhancing allied air defenses. The US-Israeli coalition has aggressively targeted Iranian ballistic missile infrastructure, destroying a significant portion of Iran’s missile launchers and striking security institutions in various provinces. Meanwhile, Iran has launched attacks on neighboring countries, including damaging a Bahraini desalination plant and causing casualties in Saudi Arabia. Additionally, the IDF has intensified its airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, conducting hundreds of strikes to weaken the group’s offensive capabilities.

Recent geolocated satellite imagery confirms an Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) strike on Iran’s Shahroud Missile Facility, a site critical for ballistic missile production, with evidence that Iran has begun repairs following previous attacks. Additionally, a combined force has targeted multiple internal security locations around Esfahan City, including the provincial Law Enforcement Command Headquarters. The IDF continues intensive operations against Hezbollah, claiming over 600 strikes and more than 200 Hezbollah fighters killed in Lebanon since late February. Meanwhile, Iran persists in launching regional attacks, including drone strikes against targets in Kuwait and reports of a drone attack on a UN building in Iraqi Kurdistan. Hezbollah also reported 19 attacks against IDF positions in northern Israel and southern Lebanon in the same period.

Recent developments indicate escalating tensions between Iran and regional actors, highlighted by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's contentious remarks about attacks on neighboring countries, which have deepened divisions within Iran’s leadership. In response, a combined force launched airstrikes targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, exacerbating the nation’s energy crisis and causing significant disruptions. Israel reported a substantial reduction in Iran’s missile capabilities and noted a sharp decline in ballistic missile attacks following these operations. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky offered assistance to Saudi Arabia in countering Iranian drone threats after attacks on Saudi oil facilities. Additionally, targeted strikes against the IRGC Aerospace Force in Tehran aimed to undermine Iran’s air defense and command capabilities, as the force plays a central role in operating the country's missile and drone arsenals.

Despite President Masoud Pezeshkian’s directive to halt strikes unless directly provoked, Iran has persisted with drone and ballistic missile attacks on Gulf states. In response, a combined force has targeted Basij bases in Tehran to weaken the regime’s capacity for domestic control, striking at least nine out of 23 regional bases as of March 6. Further operations included attacks on two Artesh airbases in Esfahan Province on March 7 to suppress Iranian air defenses and establish air superiority over Tehran and parts of western Iran. Additionally, a US-Israeli strike destroyed a vehicle, possibly related to air defense, at the Mount Kolang Gaz La facility near the Natanz Enrichment Complex, though independent verification of its purpose remains inconclusive.

Recent developments in the Middle East highlight a growing alliance between Russia and Iran, with Russia reportedly providing intelligence — including high-quality satellite imagery — to support Iranian attacks against US forces. China is also suspected of preparing to supply Iran with financial aid and missile components. In response, US and Israeli forces have intensified their campaign against Iran’s ballistic missile and drone infrastructure, resulting in a significant reduction — about 90 percent — in Iranian ballistic missile attacks. Despite ongoing Iranian retaliation in the form of multiple missile attack waves, the joint force’s operations seem to have effectively degraded Iran’s missile capabilities by targeting launchers, stockpiles, production facilities, and related industrial zones.

A combined force has launched coordinated strikes against Iranian internal security and military infrastructure, aiming to weaken the regime’s capacity for domestic control and degrade its military capabilities. On March 6, the operations targeted several law enforcement and paramilitary facilities, including police stations in Kurdistan and West Azerbaijan, and Basij Resistance bases in Tehran Province. Additionally, key military sites such as ballistic missile locations in Zanjan and Lorestan Provinces were struck. Concurrently, Hezbollah reported carrying out 18 attacks against Israeli Defense Forces in northern Israel and southern Lebanon, focusing on IDF positions in areas such as Markaba, Khiam, and Wadi al Asafir since the previous data update.

The ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran has focused on crippling Iranian ballistic missile infrastructure and air defenses, enabling greater operational freedom for allied aircraft. Since February 28, the IDF has destroyed hundreds of Iranian missile launch sites, and the campaign has now shifted toward targeting Iran's defense industrial base, including missile production facilities, with evacuation warnings issued for key industrial zones. Concurrently, the combined forces have executed airstrikes on internal security sites and IRGC special forces in various regions, while an internet shutdown may be hindering comprehensive reporting of these operations. In the political arena, US President Donald Trump has expressed conditional support for Kurdish offensives into Iran and insisted on US involvement in selecting Iran’s next supreme leader, rejecting any successor who would maintain the late Ali Khamenei’s policies. Meanwhile, Iranian state media claim that Iranian forces have launched drone strikes against US bases in Kuwait and Iraq.

Recent developments indicate that the combined US-Israeli force has effectively weakened Iran's ability to launch retaliatory attacks by significantly degrading its ballistic missile and drone capabilities, leading to a notable decline in such assaults. In addition to targeting Iran's military assets, the coalition has also struck at Iran's internal security and government institutions, focusing on Tehran and the northwest—regions historically sensitive to anti-regime activities. Meanwhile, Iran expanded its offensive actions by launching attacks on Turkey and Azerbaijan, bringing the total number of countries targeted to eleven. Simultaneously, Hezbollah conducted seven attacks against Israeli positions in northern Israel and southern Lebanon, including direct engagements with Israeli ground forces, marking the first such incidents since the 2024 Israel-Hezbollah conflict.

Recent events highlight intensified military actions involving the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) targeting key Iranian military and internal security headquarters in southeastern Tehran, aiming to disrupt command and control and weaken Iran’s retaliatory capabilities. Concurrently, unconfirmed reports suggested Kurdish groups initiated a ground operation in Iran, though these claims were denied by Iraqi Kurdistan officials and lack corroborating evidence. The combined force has notably destroyed numerous sites critical to Iran’s internal control, particularly in Tehran and Kurdish-populated cities. Additionally, Iran has increased its use of drones as ballistic missile launches decline, indicating the combined forces’ effectiveness in impeding Iran’s missile capabilities. Despite suffering significant naval losses, Iran continues attempts to disrupt international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, leveraging missiles and drones as part of broader regional destabilization efforts.

The United States and Israel have launched a coordinated campaign targeting Iran’s internal security institutions, defense infrastructure, and naval capabilities. Their operations have included attacks on police stations, notably the Iranian Cyber Police (FATA) station in Kermanshah, as well as strikes on Iran’s ballistic missile and drone assets, which have resulted in the destruction of hundreds of missiles, drones, and launchers. The campaign has also damaged Iranian defense industrial sites, including buildings at the Khojir Missile Production Complex, and has led to the sinking of Iranian ships. As a result, Iran’s regional ballistic missile launches have dropped significantly, with an 86 percent decrease since February 28 and a 23 percent decrease in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has intensified its attacks on Israeli positions in northern Israel and southern Lebanon, including rocket strikes on the Haifa Naval Base.

The combined US-Israeli campaign has effectively targeted Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear capabilities, significantly reducing missile attacks against Israel and the UAE by destroying launchers and key facilities. The operation also included strikes on critical Iranian decision-making institutions, such as the Assembly of Experts, aiming to disrupt leadership succession and undermine regime legitimacy. In response to these disruptions, Iranian leaders have delegated authority to lower-level officials to maintain state functions. Meanwhile, Iran has continued its own attacks against US forces and regional sites, leading to the closure of two US embassies, while the US and Israel have also targeted Iranian-backed militias in Iraq to prevent retaliatory actions.

Recent developments in the Middle East include ongoing attacks by the United States and Israel targeting Iranian internal security institutions in Kurdistan Province, significant Iranian drone and missile strikes against energy and maritime infrastructure in Gulf countries, and an Iranian drone attack on the US Embassy in Riyadh, which prompted condemnation and threats of retaliation from Saudi Arabia and the United States. Additionally, Iran has launched various missile and drone attacks at Qatar, though Qatar’s Foreign Ministry denies conducting strikes against Iran. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has intensified attacks on Israeli positions in northern Israel, while the IDF has responded with operations in southern Lebanon aimed at degrading Hezbollah’s capabilities.

The United States and Israel have intensified their joint military campaign against Iran and its regional allies, achieving local air superiority over Iran by targeting its air defenses and enabling safer operations for lower-generation aircraft. Their operations include airstrikes on Iranian security and propaganda sites, a significant attack on the Natanz Nuclear Facility, and strikes against Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, as well as continued efforts to degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities in Lebanon. In response, Iran is attempting to disrupt international shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and has targeted Gulf energy infrastructure to pressure regional states into urging the cessation of US-Israeli strikes, while the Houthis may also expand hostilities in the Horn of Africa if the conflict escalates further.

The combined force has continued to degrade Iran’s retaliatory capabilities, targeting missile bases, naval assets, and internal security infrastructure through airstrikes and attacks. Satellite imagery reveals significant damage to Iranian military locations, including missile bases near Najafabad and naval assets at Bandar Abbas and Bandar Mahshahr. The IDF’s ongoing operations have hindered Iran’s ability to launch coordinated missile attacks against Israel, while Iranian Shahed drones remain a substantial threat, particularly to Gulf countries. Iran has increasingly targeted energy infrastructure in the Gulf, aiming to pressure international actors for a ceasefire, which may prompt Gulf states to join the conflict. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has launched attacks on Israeli missile defense sites, prompting Israeli retaliatory strikes against Hezbollah leadership and facilities in Lebanon.

A combined US-Israeli force has carried out over 2,000 strikes in Iran, gaining air superiority over Tehran and disrupting Iranian internal security forces, particularly near the borders with Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan. Ali Reza Arafi, a key figure with close ties to Supreme Leader Khamenei, has likely been influential in consolidating religious authority in Iran. Recent Iranian retaliatory attacks have been less consistent and less intense, indicating possible coordination difficulties and the effectiveness of US-Israeli efforts to degrade Iran’s capabilities. Meanwhile, reports suggest Lebanese Hezbollah may have launched its first rocket attack into Israel since the November 2024 ceasefire, and other Iranian-backed groups have also threatened or conducted attacks against Israel and US forces.

The US-Israeli alliance is intensifying its operations against Iran's internal security structures, aligning with their stated goal of toppling the Iranian regime. In response to these pressures, Iran has established a temporary leadership council and continues its missile and drone strikes across the region, including attacks on civilian areas in the Gulf and Israel. The Israeli Defense Forces have introduced a three-phase plan to secure air superiority over key regions of Iran, reminiscent of their actions in June 2025. Meanwhile, Iran has reportedly begun targeting maritime traffic near the Strait of Hormuz to impose costs on the United States and its partners and to push for a ceasefire before the regime's potential fall.

A joint US-Israeli military campaign resulted in the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with uncertainty now surrounding Iran’s leadership as the constitutional process to appoint a successor unfolds. The campaign involved nearly 900 strikes on Iranian targets within 12 hours, including 500 by the Israel Defense Forces, significantly impairing Iranian air defenses, retaliation capabilities, and command structures, though information flow from Iran remains restricted due to an internet shutdown. While Iran has not attacked vessels in the Strait of Hormuz despite issuing warnings, and US forces have successfully defended against missile and drone attacks, Iran’s allied groups such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias have condemned the strikes but have not launched significant retaliatory operations as of the latest reporting.

The United States and Israel have launched a coordinated strike campaign against Iran, with the aim of toppling the Islamic Republic and disrupting its military capabilities. President Donald Trump called for Iranian citizens to rise up, while Israel executed decapitation strikes targeting top Iranian leaders, including attempted strikes on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and reported deaths of several senior officials. Both countries have attacked hundreds of Iranian military targets, including missile launchers and naval assets, to hinder Iran's ability to retaliate. In response, Iran has launched multiple missile barrages at Israel and attacked US military bases across the region, including in Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia.