Israel, Iran, and the Collapse of Old Norms

Strategic Signals Series: Decoding the world through OSINT

The following reflects insights one could draw from the current Israel-Iran conflict, based on open-source intelligence and expert framing by Babel Street’s Intelligence Solutions team. The Babel Street team acted immediately to build a Curated Topic on Babel Street Insights on the Israel-Iran Flash Mission. As an OSINT-first risk intelligence platform, those signals have been rapidly synthesized to provide decision-makers with an early perspective.

Iranian Regime collapse

Regime collapse is a feasible outcome of this spike. It was always plausible. The Iranian regime perceives internal rebellion as a critical threat, even on a good day. Now the regime’s allies — Assad, Hezbollah, Hamas — are imperiled, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) leadership is under fire without a clear successor to Ayatollah Khamenei, only the second Supreme Leader this regime has had since 1979. Israel rolled the dice, and the dice are still in the air. Iranian regime collapse is plausible, but also not assured.

Nuclear diplomacy appears to have ended

Israel pulled the plug and has overturned assumptions around the need for US-led military deterrence and/or response to shape the Iranian regime’s behavior. Political admonishment of Israel for its attacks on Iran exists, but it's mild. New terms have been set for handling aggressors on the world stage. It's a force-based approach, and it is a change in the political spirit of the times.  

Nuclear taboo may be over

The chance of a nuclear exchange between Israel and Iran is rising. Israel has struck but not eliminated Iran’s nuclear enrichment or weapons building capability. This spike has been framed by both governments as existential. Both sides are fighting beyond a political outcome, for a fundamental belief. Nuclear bombs are only taboo politically. Through a military frame, it’s just a bigger bomb. Iran, or Israel, could break this taboo.  

Iran's other dangerous options

The Iranian regime has other dangerous options. The threat level against the U.S., U.K., French military, and diplomatic positions within range is raised. The regime could mine the Straits of Hormuz. Houthis remain dangerous — to Israel, to regional oil infrastructure, and to ships. Iranian cyber and sleeper assassination cells remain acute global capabilities. Hezbollah is awake in the Americas. The more hits the Iranian regime takes, the more likely these scenarios become.

Water is precious to Iran

Iran has been suffering a water/electricity/agricultural crisis. The Iranian regime prefers supplying water to nuclear facilities over its people. But as water and electricity are important to nuclear facilities that are hard to hit, they could become targets. The outlook for the people of Iran during this spike is grim. Paired with Netanyahu’s calls to the Iranian people to rebel, a question now is, will they. The Iranian regime is using internet blackouts throughout this spike to disrupt.  

China and India are reliant

China and India have something in common: reliance on imports of Iranian crude oil. Global intermediaries, UAE and Malaysia, may also feel the shock of constrained access. Global energy markets are very nervous, channeling perennial fears of blocked access to the Straits of Hormuz constraining oil and gas exports from Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and UAE. Houthis have attacked Saudi refineries multiple times. We are watching closely what China and Iran each do during this spike.  

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Disclaimer

The views expressed in this brief are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Babel Street or any of its affiliated organizations. The opinions expressed are based on open-source intelligence and are intended for informational purposes only. It should not be construed as legal, strategic, or operational advice.