Takeaways from Fordow: Hypersonics, Concrete, and the Rare Earth Elements Chessboard

Strategic Signals Series: Decoding the world through OSINT

The following reflects insights one could draw from recent global military developments, based on open-source intelligence and expert framing by the Babel Street Intelligence Solutions team. As events unfold, Babel Street rapidly synthesizes global signals into analysis-ready content for analysts and decision-makers who are navigating complex geopolitical terrains. The following highlights the evolving role of hypersonic weapons, the strategic implications of ultra-high-performing concrete, and the intensifying global contest over rare earth elements (REE).

Traditional air defense may be rewritten by hypersonic ballistic missiles

Russian S-300 and S-400 surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems — and Chinese copies of the S-300 — have not performed well in Syria, Ukraine, Iran, and India/Pakistan in recent combat engagements. One might observe that Russian systems are under-performing, or that the battle management skills of the operators are deficient.

A bigger trend may be emerging, given that sophisticated Russian Iskander hypersonic short-range missiles are challenging Patriot systems in Ukraine with their nonlinear paths. Putin broadcasted the Oreshnik, Russia’s newest hypersonic missile that maneuvers in flight, deploys decoys, and can accommodate cluster munitions. The US Department of Defense (DoD) may also be joining this trend, with plans to increase attention to stealth missiles, rather than stealth jets. US DoD just increased production of the F-15EX fighter aircraft[1], which is not stealth.

China is hedging its bets against American stealth

Many Chinese SAM systems, for example the HQ-9 and the HQ-19, are based on Russian designs. One of Russia’s biggest defense chip producers, Optron-Stavropol, recently shut down operations in the face of bankruptcy.[2] This potential harbinger of the health of the Russian defense industrial base means the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) must rethink its readiness to use and export its SAM systems in the face of western stealth.

Face-offs between India and Pakistan showcase Chinese military exports in action, and when the CN HQ-9 performs poorly (Pakistan is upgrading its SAM network as a result) it is bad for China’s economy and influence, although informative for its innovation cycle. Chinese stealth detecting radar and hypersonic missile innovation demonstrate a departure from Russian roots. The CCP is also weaponizing REE sanctions in part to constrain production of the proven US F-35, USN SPY/SM, and MIM-104 systems. Corporate espionage by the CCP to acquire these US technologies will likely accelerate.

NextGen concrete and bunker-busting weapons

US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities illuminated a tandem innovation cycle between advanced concrete composites and bunker-busting bombs. Iran’s Ultra-High-Performing Concrete (UHPC) advances over the last 15 years coincided with the period announced by the Pentagon to develop bunker-buster bombs tailored to strike Iranian hardened nuclear facilities. Iran is not the only UHPC powerhouse to watch, however. China also has extensive underground bunker systems and its own bunker-busting weapons inspired by targets under mountains in Taiwan. While attention to the bunker-busting technologies of global militaries will grow in the weeks following US attacks on Iran, attention should also be paid to the old and new bunker systems and the quality of concrete technology protecting them. Companies in the UHPC field will be in demand.

CCP cracks down on China’s REE talent pool

The CCP is imposing full state control over the Chinese REE vertical, incorporating materials, technologies, and individual subject matter experts. China’s Ministry of Commerce asked companies in its rare-earth ecosystem for lists of their employees with expertise, education, research, and personal information, indicating the intent to control their foreign contact closely. This measure, following a crackdown on REE smuggling, indicates CCP’s intention to bring its antigraft control apparatus to bear on the professionals in this vertical to weaponize it effectively.

Control of an economic vertical is nothing new for CCP, but these measures to track REE companies to the man are an aggressive escalation in the middle of a sanctions stand-off that is directed at US defense applications. An increase in arrests is expected, mirroring what CCP does to constrain political rivals with antigraft investigations, under the auspices of anti-espionage. CCP purges of high-level PLA officers continue in parallel.

These developments underscore the need for real-time, intelligence-driven decision-making. Babel Street makes the digital world accessible – transforming global signals into analysis-ready insights that empower organizations to navigate complexity and mitigate risk with confidence.

From hypersonic threats and critical infrastructure vulnerabilities to the global race for rare earth elements, Babel Street puts the world’s most important OSINT signals and contextual intelligence at your fingertips. With unmatched access to global and in-country data – including from the most high-risk and hard-to-reach regions – we help you transform overwhelming information into operational advantage.

End Notes

1. Malyasov, Dylan, “U.S Air Force plans to buy more F-15Exs,” Defense Blog, June 30, 2025, https://defence-blog.com/u-s-air-force-plans-to-buy-more-f-15exs/

2. Moscow Times, “Russian Military Electronics Supplier Faces Shutdown Over Underpriced State Contracts,” June 24, 2025, https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/06/24/russian-military-electronics-supplier-faces-shutdown-over-underpriced-state-contracts-a89556

Disclaimer

The views expressed in this brief are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Babel Street or any of its affiliated organizations. The opinions expressed are based on open-source intelligence and are intended for informational purposes only. It should not be construed as legal, strategic, or operational advice.