Reframing Signals Intelligence: China’s Graphite Bomb

Strategic Signals Series: Decoding the world through OSINT

The following reflects insights one could draw from recent global military developments, based on open-source intelligence and expert framing by the Babel Street Intelligence Solutions team. As events unfold, Babel Street rapidly synthesizes global signals into analysis-ready content for analysts and decision-makers who are navigating complex geopolitical terrains. The following highlights the need to reframe signals intelligence, embrace commercial capabilities, and emphasize signals in context.

When discussing signals, most people immediately think, “highly technical and highly classified.” The US has tended to prefer highly technical signals and systems, but we are currently seeing that parity for high-end government systems can be achieved through low-cost commercial technology. Ukraine’s drone war has made this dynamic clear.[1]

A reset within national security intelligence that embraces commercial capabilities is in order. We also need to recognize that in an age of deception, sabotage, stealth, and access denial, context signals will matter more for national security than technical signals. Many commercial platforms track technical signals — AIS and flight transponders, telematics, spectral change, RF signals — and yet there is a more important goal: strategic signals. This capability does not emanate from technical sensors. It comes from context, which must factor into the fights we need to win today.

Context is more than background. It is brimming with signals. To see them, we need to reexamine what a signal is. A signal is, “a gesture, action, or sound that is used to convey information or instructions.”[2] It’s not a routine sensor reading or a series of dots in a line. Rather, it’s a flare — an indication full of meaning that something is happening. Indications and warnings (often conflated with technical signals) are about seeing change in advance, figuring out which indicators matter, and interpreting them when they flash.

Intelligence, commercial or other, is not effective unless you can use it to make decisions. Technical signals tell you “where,” “when,” and sometimes “who.“ But modern wars are less about where, when, and who than they are about “what,” “why,” and “then what,” so we need context signals to inform a national security action. Our adversaries use information channels and supply chains for a range of layered effects that obscure “where, when, and who,” making it difficult for the US to define a clear military target. Context is the only way to see their campaigns clearly.

The US bombing at Fordow was a big day for technical signals. It was also a clear and intentional context signal from the US about the “what, why, and then what” of US foreign policy. But we need to focus on the context cues from our adversaries about their “what next.” Some of those signals are posturing, like Putin’s rebuff of a July 3 phone call with Trump, with further drone and missile barrages insinuating durable strength.[3] Others, like Xi Jinping's message to the EU that China cannot tolerate a Russian loss[4] in Ukraine, smack of diversion. Interpreting adversarial messaging requires context saturation.

In another context signal from June 30, CCP announced a new graphite bomb.[5] A graphite bomb is a non-lethal weapon that disables an electrical grid. If one were to establish an indications and warnings playbook for how CCP might layer a siege on Taiwan, knocking out Taiwan’s electricity and severing internet cables would be a first step.[6]

The ability to set a naval blockade, which would require nuclear powered aircraft carriers that can loiter, would be a second. Last year, Babel Street’s in-house team identified Chinese shipbuilding overtures to industry with commercial nuclear propulsion designs.[7] Announcements do not mean real capability, but they are context signals we must catch to frame the right next questions.

Babel Street’s open-source intelligence platform, coupled with our in-house intelligence team, provide context to inform technical signals and prioritize what to track. Context is the greatest commercial capability private sector can provide to US national security. Babel Street helps ensure our national security community can track what others never seek. That is decision-advantage in modern war.

End Notes

1. Finer, Jon and Shimer, David, Foreign Affairs, “Ukraine’s Drone Revolution and What America Should Learn from It,” July 7, 2025 https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/ukraines-drone-revolution

2. Merriam Webster Dictionary, accessed July 7, 2025 https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/signal

3. Northam, Jackie, NPR, “Russia hits Ukraine with largest aerial attack as Trump talks to Zelenskyy and Putin,” July 4, 2025 https://www.npr.org/2025/07/04/nx-s1-5456846/russia-hits-ukraine-with-largest-aerial-attack-as-trump-talks-to-zelenskyy-and-putin

4. Walsh, Nick Patton, CNN, “China tells EU it can’t accept Russia losing its war against Ukraine, official says,” July 4, 2025 https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/04/europe/china-ukraine-eu-war-intl

5. Honrada, Gabriel, Asia Times, “China’s new graphite bomb signals shift to silent siege of Taiwan,” July 1, 2025 https://asiatimes.com/2025/07/chinas-new-graphite-bomb-signals-shift-to-silent-siege-of-taiwan

6. Global Taiwan Institute, “Countering China’s Subsea Cable Sabotage,” March 19, 2025 https://globaltaiwan.org/2025/03/countering-chinas-subsea-cable-sabotage

7. The Maritime Executive, “CSSC Designs Containership Using Molten Salt Nuclear Reactor,” December 5, 2023, https://maritime-executive.com/article/china-present-design-for-containership-using-molten-salt-nuclear-reactor

Disclaimer

The views expressed in this brief are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Babel Street or any of its affiliated organizations. The opinions expressed are based on open-source intelligence and are intended for informational purposes only. It should not be construed as legal, strategic, or operational advice.